Eisenkot courts UTJ as conscription dispute and Netanyahu resistance complicate coalition talks

Gadi Eisenkot has stepped up efforts to bring United Torah Judaism into a government under his leadership, but informal talks remain far from a deal. Military conscription and demands for enforceable guarantees are the main obstacles, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging the ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain their alliance with him.

Eisenkot has roughly three weeks left to assemble a government and can seek a further 14 days from the president. His bloc fears that drawn-out negotiations could give Netanyahu time to undermine the process and push toward another election. Members also worry that concessions could become public before the ultra-Orthodox parties ultimately decide to stay with Netanyahu.

The ultra-Orthodox parties want assurances that commitments on military service will survive legal challenges after a government takes office. They fear losing negotiating power once they join, particularly if the government could remain in office with parliamentary backing from Arab parties after an ultra-Orthodox withdrawal. UTJ lawmaker Yakov Asher has identified the status of yeshiva students, independent ultra-Orthodox education and the existing religion-state arrangements as his three principal conditions.

Demands discussed by Hasidic figures within Agudat Yisrael include military service deferments for those devoted to Torah study and personal pledges from all 48 lawmakers in Eisenkot's bloc to legislate an exemption. They also seek an override provision if the High Court of Justice invalidates the law, alongside safeguards governing later amendments. A document purportedly mentioning contacts with the attorney-general does not establish that the proposed arrangement has received her approval.

Eisenkot's bloc is considering a commitment to suspend conscription enforcement, including arrests of draft evaders, for up to a year after taking office. Negotiators would use that period to develop legislation based on Avigdor Liberman's 2018 proposal, with changes. However, the High Court has previously ruled that an administrative decision alone cannot authorize such a suspension. Temporary legislation also faces legal obstacles, and no agreed solution has emerged.

Rabbinical approval remains essential to any UTJ agreement. Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch has authorized negotiations, prioritizing the legal position of yeshiva students over budget demands, while expressing doubts about the prospects of a deal. Contacts involving ultra-Orthodox figures David Shapira and Motty Babchik and Liberman's representatives have continued for months. UTJ's constituent factions would each need backing from their rabbinical leadership.

Even securing UTJ would leave Eisenkot short of a majority. Its participation would bring the proposed coalition to 55 lawmakers, six below the required number, making outside support or abstentions necessary. Liberman has dropped his principled opposition to governing with ultra-Orthodox parties but rejects dependence on Ra'am. A plan to bring in Shas later remains uncertain because Arye Deri's position is unclear and UTJ has not publicly agreed to enter without Shas.

Eisenkot intends to restart negotiations with Likud in the coming week and speak with the Religious Zionist Party, while excluding Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit. His conditions include recognition of Israel as Jewish and democratic, acceptance of the Declaration of Independence's values, military, national or civilian service for every citizen, and a commitment to dismantling Hamas's military and governing capabilities. The service requirement could complicate negotiations over yeshiva exemptions.

Netanyahu has been speaking directly with Deri and Asher, warning that an Eisenkot government might break its promises while remaining beyond their ability to topple. After a lengthy late-night meeting with Asher, Likud officials assessed that they had stalled progress in the talks. Eisenkot has yet to publicly outline the conscription compromises he would accept or present an agreed framework with the ultra-Orthodox parties.